Tigres UANL
Cruz Azul
Tigres UANL – Cruz Azul
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.31 – 1.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Cruz Azul away from home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.31 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.57 for Cruz Azul. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Tigres UANL took 5 points and Cruz Azul 13 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Tigres UANL, 3 draws, 2 wins for Cruz Azul. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tigres UANL | 2.85 | 33 % | -15.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -6.4 % |
| 2Cruz Azul | 2.25 | 41 % | -1.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Tigres UANL
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Cruz Azul
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Tigres UANL
- 3 draws
- 2 wins
- Cruz Azul
- Cruz Azul2-1Tigres UANL
- Tigres UANL1-1Cruz Azul
- Cruz Azul1-1Tigres UANL
- Tigres UANL1-1Cruz Azul
- Cruz Azul1-0Tigres UANL
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Tigres UANL – Cruz Azul?
Our model gives 2 · Cruz Azul a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Tigres UANL win 30 %, draw 26 %, Cruz Azul win 44 %.
What is the most likely score for Tigres UANL – Cruz Azul?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.