Instituto (Córdoba)
Newell's Old Boys
Instituto (Córdoba) – Newell's Old Boys
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 56 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.53 – 0.82
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42 %
- Both teams to score
- 44 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Instituto (Córdoba) at home (56 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.53 goals for Instituto (Córdoba) and 0.82 for Newell's Old Boys. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 50 %. Over their last five matches, Instituto (Córdoba) took 11 points and Newell's Old Boys 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Instituto (Córdoba), 1 draw, 0 wins for Newell's Old Boys. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 44 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Instituto (Córdoba) | 1.86 | 50 % | +3.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 30 % | -16.1 % |
| 2Newell's Old Boys | 4.70 | 20 % | -18.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Instituto (Córdoba)
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Newell's Old Boys
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Instituto (Córdoba)
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Newell's Old Boys
- Newell's Old Boys1-1Instituto (Córdoba)
- Newell's Old Boys0-2Instituto (Córdoba)
- Instituto (Córdoba)3-1Newell's Old Boys
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Instituto (Córdoba) – Newell's Old Boys?
Our model gives 1 · Instituto (Córdoba) a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Instituto (Córdoba) win 56 %, draw 27 %, Newell's Old Boys win 17 %.
What is the most likely score for Instituto (Córdoba) – Newell's Old Boys?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.