Predictions are closed for this match.
AIK
07:00 PM
Sep 16
Mjällby AIF
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AIK | 2.25 | 42 % | +5.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 27 % | -2.5 % |
| 2Mjällby AIF | 3.00 | 31 % | -23.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
AIK
Mjällby AIF
| AIK | Form and statistics | Mjällby AIF |
|---|---|---|
| 1554 | Elo | 1535 |
| 1.70 | Goals scored / match | 0.70 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 2.30 |
| 12.0 | Shots / match | 7.2 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 10 % |
| 4 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:49 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · AIK a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AIK win 47 %, draw 27 %, Mjällby AIF win 25 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 53 %, and both teams scoring at 56 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.25 for AIK, 3.55 for the draw, 3.00 for Mjällby AIF.
Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:00 PM (Allsvenskan), at Friends Arena.
The model leans towards AIK at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.66 goals for AIK and 1.15 for Mjällby AIF. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 42 %. Over their last five matches, AIK took 10 points and Mjällby AIF 1 point. In recent meetings: 3 wins for AIK, 1 draw, 1 win for Mjällby AIF. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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