Atlas
Pachuca
Atlas – Pachuca
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.33 – 1.52
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Pachuca away from home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.33 goals for Atlas and 1.52 for Pachuca. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 32 %. Over their last five matches, Atlas took 10 points and Pachuca 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Atlas, 1 draw, 3 wins for Pachuca. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlas | 2.25 | 42 % | -26.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -3.8 % |
| 2Pachuca | 2.90 | 32 % | +18.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Atlas
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Pachuca
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Atlas
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Pachuca
- Pachuca3-1Atlas
- Atlas0-3Pachuca
- Pachuca0-0Atlas
- Atlas2-0Pachuca
- Pachuca4-3Atlas
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlas – Pachuca?
Our model gives 2 · Pachuca a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlas win 33 %, draw 27 %, Pachuca win 41 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlas – Pachuca?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.