Vila Nova
Criciúma
Vila Nova – Criciúma
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.34 – 1.05
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Vila Nova at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.34 goals for Vila Nova and 1.05 for Criciúma. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Vila Nova took 6 points and Criciúma 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Vila Nova, 1 draw, 3 wins for Criciúma. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vila Nova | 2.20 | 42 % | -5.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 30 % | -4.7 % |
| 2Criciúma | 3.30 | 28 % | -12.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Vila Nova
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Criciúma
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Vila Nova
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Criciúma
- Criciúma2-0Vila Nova
- Vila Nova1-1Criciúma
- Criciúma1-0Vila Nova
- Vila Nova1-0Criciúma
- Criciúma1-0Vila Nova
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Vila Nova – Criciúma?
Our model gives 1 · Vila Nova a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Vila Nova win 43 %, draw 30 %, Criciúma win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Vila Nova – Criciúma?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.