Boca Juniors
Defensa y Justicia
Boca Juniors – Defensa y Justicia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 65 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.80 – 0.76
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 45 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Boca Juniors at home (65 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.80 goals for Boca Juniors and 0.76 for Defensa y Justicia. Bookmakers say the same thing: 69 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Boca Juniors took 12 points and Defensa y Justicia 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Boca Juniors, 2 draws, 1 win for Defensa y Justicia. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Boca Juniors | 1.36 | 69 % | -11.1 % |
| XDraw | 4.70 | 20 % | +2.1 % |
| 2Defensa y Justicia | 8.50 | 11 % | +9.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Boca Juniors
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Defensa y Justicia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Boca Juniors
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Defensa y Justicia
- Defensa y Justicia0-4Boca Juniors
- Defensa y Justicia2-1Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors4-0Defensa y Justicia
- Defensa y Justicia2-2Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors0-0Defensa y Justicia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Boca Juniors – Defensa y Justicia?
Our model gives 1 · Boca Juniors a 65 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Boca Juniors win 65 %, draw 22 %, Defensa y Justicia win 13 %.
What is the most likely score for Boca Juniors – Defensa y Justicia?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.