Atlético Madrid
4-0
Osasuna
Atlético Madrid – Osasuna
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:49 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 60 %
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.98 – 0.98
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Atlético Madrid 4-0 Osasuna. The model predicted a win for Atlético Madrid (60 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 1.98 goals for Atlético Madrid and 0.98 for Osasuna. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 72 %. Over their last five matches, Atlético Madrid took 7 points and Osasuna 7 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Atlético Madrid, 0 draws, 2 wins for Osasuna. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlético Madrid | 1.31 | 72 % | -21.9 % |
| XDraw | 5.25 | 18 % | +14.9 % |
| 2Osasuna | 10.00 | 9 % | +85.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Atlético Madrid
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Osasuna
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Atlético Madrid
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Osasuna
- Osasuna1-2Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid1-0Osasuna
- Osasuna2-0Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid1-0Osasuna
- Atlético Madrid1-4Osasuna
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Atlético Madrid – Osasuna?
Final score: Atlético Madrid 4-0 Osasuna. The model predicted a win for Atlético Madrid (60 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Atlético Madrid – Osasuna?
Our model gives 1 · Atlético Madrid a 60 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlético Madrid win 60 %, draw 22 %, Osasuna win 19 %.