Predictions are closed for this match.
Atlético Madrid
07:00 PM
Sep 16
Osasuna
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlético Madrid | 1.31 | 72 % | -21.9 % |
| XDraw | 5.25 | 18 % | +14.9 % |
| 2Osasuna | 10.00 | 9 % | +85.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Atlético Madrid
Osasuna
| Atlético Madrid | Form and statistics | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| 1771 | Elo | 1590 |
| 1.50 | Goals scored / match | 1.00 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 13.4 | Shots / match | 12.5 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 2 | Rest days | 4 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:49 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Atlético Madrid a 60 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlético Madrid win 60 %, draw 22 %, Osasuna win 19 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 57 %, and both teams scoring at 54 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.31 for Atlético Madrid, 5.25 for the draw, 10.00 for Osasuna.
Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:00 PM (LaLiga), at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
The model leans towards Atlético Madrid at home (60 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 1.98 goals for Atlético Madrid and 0.98 for Osasuna. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 72 %. Over their last five matches, Atlético Madrid took 7 points and Osasuna 7 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Atlético Madrid, 0 draws, 2 wins for Osasuna. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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