Novorizontino
Fortaleza
Novorizontino – Fortaleza
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 58 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.81 – 0.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Novorizontino at home (58 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.81 goals for Novorizontino and 0.86 for Fortaleza. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 52 %. Over their last five matches, Novorizontino took 13 points and Fortaleza 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Novorizontino, 0 draws, 1 win for Fortaleza. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Novorizontino | 1.76 | 52 % | +2.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 26 % | -6.0 % |
| 2Fortaleza | 4.30 | 21 % | -35.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Novorizontino
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Fortaleza
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Novorizontino
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Fortaleza
- Fortaleza1-0Novorizontino
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Novorizontino – Fortaleza?
Our model gives 1 · Novorizontino a 58 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Novorizontino win 58 %, draw 27 %, Fortaleza win 15 %.
What is the most likely score for Novorizontino – Fortaleza?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.