Paris Saint-Germain
Troyes
Paris Saint-Germain – Troyes
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 83 %
- Most likely score
- 3-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 3.43 – 0.68
- Over 2.5 goals
- 78 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Paris Saint-Germain at home (83 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.43 goals for Paris Saint-Germain and 0.68 for Troyes. Bookmakers say the same thing: 86 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Paris Saint-Germain took 15 points and Troyes 4 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Paris Saint-Germain, 1 draw, 0 wins for Troyes. Over 2.5 goals: 78 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris Saint-Germain | 1.10 | 86 % | -7.8 % |
| XDraw | 10.50 | 9 % | +19.2 % |
| 2Troyes | 19.00 | 5 % | -1.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Paris Saint-Germain
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Troyes
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Paris Saint-Germain
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Troyes
- Troyes1-3Paris Saint-Germain
- Paris Saint-Germain4-3Troyes
- Paris Saint-Germain2-2Troyes
- Troyes1-2Paris Saint-Germain
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Paris Saint-Germain – Troyes?
Our model gives 1 · Paris Saint-Germain a 83 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Paris Saint-Germain win 83 %, draw 11 %, Troyes win 5 %.
What is the most likely score for Paris Saint-Germain – Troyes?
The most likely score is 3-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.