Valencia
Real Madrid
Valencia – Real Madrid
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 66 %
- Most likely score
- 0-211 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.92 – 2.10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Real Madrid away from home (66 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.92 goals for Valencia and 2.10 for Real Madrid. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 74 %. Over their last five matches, Valencia took 5 points and Real Madrid 15 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Valencia, 1 draw, 3 wins for Real Madrid. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Valencia | 9.00 | 11 % | +22.9 % |
| XDraw | 6.00 | 16 % | +23.1 % |
| 2Real Madrid | 1.29 | 74 % | -15.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Valencia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Real Madrid
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Valencia
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Real Madrid
- Valencia0-2Real Madrid
- Real Madrid4-0Valencia
- Real Madrid1-2Valencia
- Valencia1-2Real Madrid
- Valencia2-2Real Madrid
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Valencia – Real Madrid?
Our model gives 2 · Real Madrid a 66 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Valencia win 14 %, draw 21 %, Real Madrid win 66 %.
What is the most likely score for Valencia – Real Madrid?
The most likely score is 0-2, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.