Hertha Berlin
VfL Wolfsburg
Hertha Berlin – VfL Wolfsburg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.95 – 1.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65 %
- Both teams to score
- 65 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Hertha Berlin at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.95 goals for Hertha Berlin and 1.39 for VfL Wolfsburg. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Hertha Berlin took 13 points and VfL Wolfsburg 8 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Hertha Berlin, 1 draw, 3 wins for VfL Wolfsburg. Over 2.5 goals: 65 %. Both teams to score: 65 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hertha Berlin | 2.10 | 45 % | +1.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 24 % | -2.3 % |
| 2VfL Wolfsburg | 3.00 | 31 % | -20.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Hertha Berlin
- Last 5 matches
- At home
VfL Wolfsburg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Hertha Berlin
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- VfL Wolfsburg
- VfL Wolfsburg1-2Hertha Berlin
- Hertha Berlin0-5VfL Wolfsburg
- VfL Wolfsburg0-0Hertha Berlin
- Hertha Berlin1-2VfL Wolfsburg
- VfL Wolfsburg2-0Hertha Berlin
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Hertha Berlin – VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model gives 1 · Hertha Berlin a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Hertha Berlin win 48 %, draw 25 %, VfL Wolfsburg win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Hertha Berlin – VfL Wolfsburg?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.