Predictions are closed for this match.
Elche
09:30 PM
Sep 15
Real Madrid
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Elche | 12.00 | 8 % | +82.4 % |
| XDraw | 7.50 | 13 % | +49.8 % |
| 2Real Madrid | 1.20 | 79 % | -22.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Elche
Real Madrid
| Elche | Form and statistics | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 1583 | Elo | 1881 |
| 1.10 | Goals scored / match | 2.30 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded / match | 0.90 |
| 11.1 | Shots / match | 17.2 |
| 10 % | Win rate | 80 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 3 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:48 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Real Madrid a 65 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Elche win 15 %, draw 20 %, Real Madrid win 65 %.
The most likely score is 0-2, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 57 %, and both teams scoring at 53 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 12.00 for Elche, 7.50 for the draw, 1.20 for Real Madrid.
Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:30 PM (LaLiga), at Estadio Martínez Valero.
The model leans towards Real Madrid away from home (65 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.93 goals for Elche and 2.06 for Real Madrid. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 79 %. Over their last five matches, Elche took 2 points and Real Madrid 12 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Elche, 1 draw, 1 win for Real Madrid. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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