Pau
Nantes
Pau – Nantes
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 35 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.29 – 1.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Pau at home (35 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.29 goals for Pau and 1.27 for Nantes. Bookmakers say the same thing: 31 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Pau took 15 points and Nantes 5 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Pau, 0 draws, 1 win for Nantes. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pau | 3.00 | 31 % | +6.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.25 | 29 % | -1.2 % |
| 2Nantes | 2.35 | 40 % | -19.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Pau
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Nantes
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Pau
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Nantes
- Pau1-4Nantes
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Pau – Nantes?
Our model gives 1 · Pau a 35 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Pau win 35 %, draw 30 %, Nantes win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Pau – Nantes?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.