AJ Auxerre
Paris FC
AJ Auxerre – Paris FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.17 – 1.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Paris FC away from home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.17 goals for AJ Auxerre and 1.61 for Paris FC. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 54 %. Over their last five matches, AJ Auxerre took 7 points and Paris FC 9 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for AJ Auxerre, 2 draws, 1 win for Paris FC. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AJ Auxerre | 4.27 | 22 % | +17.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 24 % | +10.8 % |
| 2Paris FC | 1.75 | 54 % | -21.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
AJ Auxerre
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Paris FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- AJ Auxerre
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Paris FC
- AJ Auxerre0-0Paris FC
- Paris FC1-1AJ Auxerre
- AJ Auxerre2-0Paris FC
- Paris FC0-2AJ Auxerre
- AJ Auxerre1-2Paris FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AJ Auxerre – Paris FC?
Our model gives 2 · Paris FC a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AJ Auxerre win 27 %, draw 28 %, Paris FC win 45 %.
What is the most likely score for AJ Auxerre – Paris FC?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.