Aris
Panetolikos
Aris – Panetolikos
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 64 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.88 – 0.82
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Aris at home (64 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.88 goals for Aris and 0.82 for Panetolikos. Bookmakers say the same thing: 68 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Aris took 10 points and Panetolikos no points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Aris, 0 draws, 2 wins for Panetolikos. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aris | 1.37 | 68 % | -12.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.70 | 20 % | +5.3 % |
| 2Panetolikos | 7.50 | 12 % | +2.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Aris
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Panetolikos
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Aris
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Panetolikos
- Panetolikos0-1Aris
- Aris0-2Panetolikos
- Aris2-1Panetolikos
- Panetolikos2-1Aris
- Panetolikos0-4Aris
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Aris – Panetolikos?
Our model gives 1 · Aris a 64 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Aris win 64 %, draw 22 %, Panetolikos win 14 %.
What is the most likely score for Aris – Panetolikos?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.