Predictions are closed for this match.
Fiorentina
09:00 PM
Sep 15
Pisa
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fiorentina | 1.46 | 64 % | -0.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 21 % | -17.8 % |
| 2Pisa | 6.50 | 14 % | -13.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Fiorentina
Pisa
| Fiorentina | Form and statistics | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| 1610 | Elo | 1416 |
| 1.20 | Goals scored / match | 0.90 |
| 1.70 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 14.1 | Shots / match | 12.1 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 4 | Rest days | 4 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:48 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Fiorentina a 68 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fiorentina win 68 %, draw 19 %, Pisa win 13 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 63 %, and both teams scoring at 54 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.46 for Fiorentina, 4.40 for the draw, 6.50 for Pisa.
Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:00 PM (Coppa Italia), at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
The model leans towards Fiorentina at home (68 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.34 goals for Fiorentina and 0.89 for Pisa. Bookmakers say the same thing: 64 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Fiorentina took 6 points and Pisa 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Fiorentina, 1 draw, 0 wins for Pisa. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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