Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest – Manchester City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 60 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.03 – 1.94
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Manchester City away from home (60 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.03 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.94 for Manchester City. Bookmakers say the same thing: 56 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Nottingham Forest took 1 point and Manchester City 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Nottingham Forest, 1 draw, 3 wins for Manchester City. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nottingham Forest | 4.67 | 20 % | -22.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.05 | 24 % | -7.0 % |
| 2Manchester City | 1.71 | 56 % | +3.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Nottingham Forest
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Manchester City
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Nottingham Forest
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Manchester City
- Manchester City2-2Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest1-2Manchester City
- Nottingham Forest0-2Manchester City
- Nottingham Forest1-0Manchester City
- Manchester City3-0Nottingham Forest
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Nottingham Forest – Manchester City?
Our model gives 2 · Manchester City a 60 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Nottingham Forest win 17 %, draw 23 %, Manchester City win 60 %.
What is the most likely score for Nottingham Forest – Manchester City?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.