Fortuna Sittard
Telstar
Fortuna Sittard – Telstar
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.66 – 1.44
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Fortuna Sittard at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.66 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.44 for Telstar. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Fortuna Sittard took 7 points and Telstar 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Fortuna Sittard, 0 draws, 1 win for Telstar. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fortuna Sittard | 2.05 | 46 % | -12.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 25 % | +0.3 % |
| 2Telstar | 3.25 | 29 % | -1.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Fortuna Sittard
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Telstar
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Fortuna Sittard
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Telstar
- Fortuna Sittard1-4Telstar
- Telstar1-3Fortuna Sittard
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fortuna Sittard – Telstar?
Our model gives 1 · Fortuna Sittard a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fortuna Sittard win 43 %, draw 27 %, Telstar win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Fortuna Sittard – Telstar?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.