Liverpool
09:00 PM
Sep 15
Tottenham Hotspur
Liverpool – Tottenham Hotspur
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:48 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.95 – 1.00
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Liverpool at home (60 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 1.95 goals for Liverpool and 1.00 for Tottenham Hotspur. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 46 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.00, the predicted outcome carries +20.1 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Liverpool took 9 points and Tottenham Hotspur 5 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Liverpool, 1 draw, 1 win for Tottenham Hotspur. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Liverpool | 2.00 | 46 % | +20.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 25 % | -28.0 % |
| 2Tottenham Hotspur |
Form and statistics
Liverpool
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Tottenham Hotspur
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Liverpool | Form and statistics | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| 1768 | Elo | 1619 |
| 1.70 | Goals scored / match | 1.10 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.00 |
| 14.8 | Shots / match | 13.8 |
| 30 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Liverpool
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Tottenham Hotspur
- Liverpool1-1Tottenham Hotspur
- Tottenham Hotspur1-2Liverpool
- Liverpool5-1Tottenham Hotspur
- Liverpool4-0Tottenham Hotspur
- Tottenham Hotspur1-0Liverpool
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Liverpool – Tottenham Hotspur?
Our model gives 1 · Liverpool a 60 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Liverpool win 60 %, draw 20 %, Tottenham Hotspur win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for Liverpool – Tottenham Hotspur?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
