Oxford United
Stevenage
Oxford United – Stevenage
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.79 – 1.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Oxford United at home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.79 goals for Oxford United and 1.14 for Stevenage. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 47 %. Over their last five matches, Oxford United took 3 points and Stevenage 3 points. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Oxford United | 2.05 | 47 % | +11.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -36.1 % |
| 2Stevenage | 3.75 | 26 % | +2.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Oxford United
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Stevenage
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Oxford United – Stevenage?
Our model gives 1 · Oxford United a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Oxford United win 55 %, draw 18 %, Stevenage win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Oxford United – Stevenage?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.