Newport County
Walsall
Newport County – Walsall
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.55 – 1.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Newport County at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.55 goals for Newport County and 1.40 for Walsall. Bookmakers say the same thing: 37 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Newport County took 3 points and Walsall 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Newport County | 2.60 | 37 % | +5.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -23.8 % |
| 2Walsall | 2.75 | 35 % | +2.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Newport County
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Walsall
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Newport County – Walsall?
Our model gives 1 · Newport County a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Newport County win 40 %, draw 22 %, Walsall win 37 %.
What is the most likely score for Newport County – Walsall?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.