Luton Town
Forest Green Rovers
Luton Town – Forest Green Rovers
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 63 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.13 – 1.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Luton Town at home (63 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.13 goals for Luton Town and 1.12 for Forest Green Rovers. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 73 %. Over their last five matches, Luton Town took 7 points and Forest Green Rovers 6 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Luton Town, 0 draws, 0 wins for Forest Green Rovers. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Luton Town | 1.30 | 73 % | -18.5 % |
| XDraw | 6.00 | 16 % | -5.7 % |
| 2Forest Green Rovers | 8.50 | 11 % | +83.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Luton Town
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Forest Green Rovers
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Luton Town
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Forest Green Rovers
- Luton Town4-3Forest Green Rovers
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Luton Town – Forest Green Rovers?
Our model gives 1 · Luton Town a 63 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Luton Town win 63 %, draw 16 %, Forest Green Rovers win 22 %.
What is the most likely score for Luton Town – Forest Green Rovers?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.