Predictions are closed for this match.
Ipswich Town
09:00 PM
Sep 15
Arsenal
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ipswich Town | 7.00 | 13 % | +0.8 % |
| XDraw | 5.00 | 18 % | -10.1 % |
| 2Arsenal | 1.35 | 68 % | -8.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Ipswich Town
Arsenal
| Ipswich Town | Form and statistics | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 1597 | Elo | 1950 |
| 1.90 | Goals scored / match | 1.50 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded / match | 0.30 |
| 13.6 | Shots / match | 14.5 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 90 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 3 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:48 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Arsenal a 68 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ipswich Town win 14 %, draw 18 %, Arsenal win 68 %.
The most likely score is 0-2, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 58 %, and both teams scoring at 52 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 7.00 for Ipswich Town, 5.00 for the draw, 1.35 for Arsenal.
Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:00 PM (League Cup), at Portman Road.
The model leans towards Arsenal away from home (68 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.90 goals for Ipswich Town and 2.13 for Arsenal. Bookmakers say the same thing: 68 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Ipswich Town took 9 points and Arsenal 15 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Ipswich Town, 0 draws, 2 wins for Arsenal. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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