Cardiff City
Burnley
Cardiff City – Burnley
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.47 – 1.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Cardiff City at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.47 goals for Cardiff City and 1.30 for Burnley. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Cardiff City took 8 points and Burnley 3 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Cardiff City, 1 draw, 3 wins for Burnley. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cardiff City | 2.10 | 45 % | -13.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.77 | 25 % | +6.3 % |
| 2Burnley | 3.10 | 30 % | -5.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Cardiff City
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Burnley
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Cardiff City
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Burnley
- Burnley1-2Cardiff City
- Cardiff City1-2Burnley
- Burnley5-0Cardiff City
- Burnley3-0Cardiff City
- Cardiff City1-1Burnley
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cardiff City – Burnley?
Our model gives 1 · Cardiff City a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Cardiff City win 41 %, draw 28 %, Burnley win 31 %.
What is the most likely score for Cardiff City – Burnley?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.