Mainz
Bayern Munich
Mainz – Bayern Munich
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 76 %
- Most likely score
- 1-38 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.05 – 3.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 82 %
- Both teams to score
- 63 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bayern Munich away from home (76 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-3. It expects 1.05 goals for Mainz and 3.39 for Bayern Munich. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 71 %. Over their last five matches, Mainz took 3 points and Bayern Munich 11 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Mainz, 1 draw, 3 wins for Bayern Munich. Over 2.5 goals: 82 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mainz | 6.75 | 14 % | -32.4 % |
| XDraw | 6.25 | 15 % | -12.6 % |
| 2Bayern Munich | 1.33 | 71 % | +0.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Mainz
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bayern Munich
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Mainz
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Bayern Munich
- Mainz3-4Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich2-2Mainz
- Bayern Munich3-0Mainz
- Mainz2-1Bayern Munich
- Mainz0-4Bayern Munich
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mainz – Bayern Munich?
Our model gives 2 · Bayern Munich a 76 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mainz win 10 %, draw 14 %, Bayern Munich win 76 %.
What is the most likely score for Mainz – Bayern Munich?
The most likely score is 1-3, at 8 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.