Cesena
Catanzaro
Cesena – Catanzaro
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.32 – 1.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Cesena at home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.32 goals for Cesena and 1.27 for Catanzaro. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 45 %. Over their last five matches, Cesena took 5 points and Catanzaro 3 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Cesena, 0 draws, 3 wins for Catanzaro. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cesena | 2.10 | 45 % | -18.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | +6.7 % |
| 2Catanzaro | 3.30 | 28 % | +1.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Cesena
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Catanzaro
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Cesena
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Catanzaro
- Cesena3-1Catanzaro
- Catanzaro2-0Cesena
- Catanzaro1-0Cesena
- Catanzaro4-2Cesena
- Cesena2-0Catanzaro
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cesena – Catanzaro?
Our model gives 1 · Cesena a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Cesena win 39 %, draw 30 %, Catanzaro win 31 %.
What is the most likely score for Cesena – Catanzaro?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.