Portsmouth
Stoke City
Portsmouth – Stoke City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.53 – 1.01
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Portsmouth at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.53 goals for Portsmouth and 1.01 for Stoke City. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 41 %. Over their last five matches, Portsmouth took 11 points and Stoke City 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Portsmouth, 0 draws, 2 wins for Stoke City. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portsmouth | 2.30 | 41 % | +11.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.25 | 29 % | -10.2 % |
| 2Stoke City | 3.13 | 30 % | -25.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Portsmouth
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Stoke City
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Portsmouth
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Stoke City
- Stoke City1-3Portsmouth
- Portsmouth0-1Stoke City
- Portsmouth3-1Stoke City
- Stoke City6-1Portsmouth
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Portsmouth – Stoke City?
Our model gives 1 · Portsmouth a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Portsmouth win 49 %, draw 28 %, Stoke City win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Portsmouth – Stoke City?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.