Falkirk
08:45 PM
Sep 15
Heart of Midlothian
Falkirk – Heart of Midlothian
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:48 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.09 – 1.81
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Heart of Midlothian away from home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.09 goals for Falkirk and 1.81 for Heart of Midlothian. Bookmakers say the same thing: 50 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Falkirk took 2 points and Heart of Midlothian 11 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Falkirk, 1 draw, 4 wins for Heart of Midlothian. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Falkirk | 3.80 | 25 % | -14.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 25 % | -6.1 % |
| 2Heart of Midlothian | 1.85 | 50 % | -3.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Falkirk
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Heart of Midlothian
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Falkirk | Form and statistics | Heart of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|
| 1489 | Elo | 1648 |
| 0.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.80 |
| 2.10 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 9.8 | Shots / match | 14.5 |
| 10 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Falkirk
- 1 draw
- 4 wins
- Heart of Midlothian
- Heart of Midlothian3-0Falkirk
- Heart of Midlothian1-0Falkirk
- Heart of Midlothian1-1Falkirk
- Falkirk0-2Heart of Midlothian
- Heart of Midlothian3-0Falkirk
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Falkirk – Heart of Midlothian?
Our model gives 2 · Heart of Midlothian a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Falkirk win 23 %, draw 25 %, Heart of Midlothian win 52 %.
What is the most likely score for Falkirk – Heart of Midlothian?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
