Predictions are closed for this match.
Middlesbrough
08:45 PM
Sep 15
Millwall
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Middlesbrough | 1.40 | 68 % | -24.8 % |
| XDraw | 5.00 | 19 % | +26.5 % |
| 2Millwall | 7.00 | 13 % | +45.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Middlesbrough
Millwall
| Middlesbrough | Form and statistics | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| 1559 | Elo | 1531 |
| 1.60 | Goals scored / match | 1.30 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 16.9 | Shots / match | 12.2 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 3 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:48 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Middlesbrough a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Middlesbrough win 54 %, draw 25 %, Millwall win 21 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 51 %, and both teams scoring at 53 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.40 for Middlesbrough, 5.00 for the draw, 7.00 for Millwall.
Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Championship), at Riverside Stadium.
The model leans towards Middlesbrough at home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.71 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.01 for Millwall. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 68 %. Over their last five matches, Middlesbrough took 10 points and Millwall 3 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Middlesbrough, 0 draws, 2 wins for Millwall. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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