Peterborough United
08:30 PM
Sep 15
Barnsley
Peterborough United – Barnsley
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:48 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.54 – 1.47
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Peterborough United at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.54 goals for Peterborough United and 1.47 for Barnsley. Bookmakers say the same thing: 39 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Peterborough United took 9 points and Barnsley 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Peterborough United, 0 draws, 1 win for Barnsley. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Peterborough United | 2.35 | 39 % | -5.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 25 % | -19.1 % |
| 2Barnsley | 2.60 | 36 % | -1.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Peterborough United
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Barnsley
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Peterborough United | Form and statistics | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| 1513 | Elo | 1528 |
| 1.60 | Goals scored / match | 1.60 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded / match | 1.90 |
| 11.2 | Shots / match | 16.0 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Peterborough United
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Barnsley
- Peterborough United0-1Barnsley
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Peterborough United – Barnsley?
Our model gives 1 · Peterborough United a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Peterborough United win 40 %, draw 22 %, Barnsley win 38 %.
What is the most likely score for Peterborough United – Barnsley?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
