Avispa Fukuoka
V-Varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka – V-Varen Nagasaki
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 5, 06:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.25 – 1.29
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Avispa Fukuoka at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.25 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 1.29 for V-Varen Nagasaki. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 45 %. Over their last five matches, Avispa Fukuoka took 3 points and V-Varen Nagasaki 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Avispa Fukuoka, 0 draws, 1 win for V-Varen Nagasaki. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Avispa Fukuoka | 2.05 | 45 % | -22.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -4.0 % |
| 2V-Varen Nagasaki | 3.45 | 27 % | +15.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Avispa Fukuoka
- Last 5 matches
- At home
V-Varen Nagasaki
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Avispa Fukuoka
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- V-Varen Nagasaki
- Avispa Fukuoka1-0V-Varen Nagasaki
- V-Varen Nagasaki1-0Avispa Fukuoka
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Avispa Fukuoka – V-Varen Nagasaki?
Our model gives 1 · Avispa Fukuoka a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Avispa Fukuoka win 38 %, draw 29 %, V-Varen Nagasaki win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Avispa Fukuoka – V-Varen Nagasaki?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.