Necaxa
Tijuana
Necaxa – Tijuana
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 5, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.31 – 1.47
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Tijuana away from home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.31 goals for Necaxa and 1.47 for Tijuana. Bookmakers say the same thing: 35 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Necaxa took 2 points and Tijuana 7 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Necaxa, 0 draws, 2 wins for Tijuana. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Necaxa | 2.40 | 39 % | -18.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 26 % | -3.4 % |
| 2Tijuana | 2.65 | 35 % | +4.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Necaxa
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Tijuana
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Necaxa
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Tijuana
- Necaxa3-0Tijuana
- Tijuana3-0Necaxa
- Tijuana1-2Necaxa
- Necaxa1-2Tijuana
- Tijuana2-3Necaxa
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Necaxa – Tijuana?
Our model gives 2 · Tijuana a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Necaxa win 34 %, draw 26 %, Tijuana win 39 %.
What is the most likely score for Necaxa – Tijuana?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.