Tigre
Sarmiento (Junín)
Tigre – Sarmiento (Junín)
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 5, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.54 – 0.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43 %
- Both teams to score
- 46 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Tigre at home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.54 goals for Tigre and 0.86 for Sarmiento (Junín). Bookmakers say the same thing: 49 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Tigre took 4 points and Sarmiento (Junín) 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Tigre, 2 draws, 1 win for Sarmiento (Junín). Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tigre | 1.90 | 49 % | +2.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 30 % | -16.0 % |
| 2Sarmiento (Junín) | 4.40 | 21 % | -14.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Tigre
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sarmiento (Junín)
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Tigre
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Sarmiento (Junín)
- Sarmiento (Junín)1-0Tigre
- Sarmiento (Junín)0-0Tigre
- Tigre1-0Sarmiento (Junín)
- Sarmiento (Junín)2-2Tigre
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Tigre – Sarmiento (Junín)?
Our model gives 1 · Tigre a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Tigre win 54 %, draw 27 %, Sarmiento (Junín) win 19 %.
What is the most likely score for Tigre – Sarmiento (Junín)?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.