Predictions are closed for this match.
Ajax Amsterdam
08:00 PM
Sep 15
Willem II
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ajax Amsterdam | 1.10 | 85 % | -3.7 % |
| XDraw | 9.75 | 10 % | -11.5 % |
| 2Willem II | 19.00 | 5 % | -27.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Ajax Amsterdam
Willem II
| Ajax Amsterdam | Form and statistics | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| 1706 | Elo | 1375 |
| 3.20 | Goals scored / match | 1.60 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 2.40 |
| 23.4 | Shots / match | 12.7 |
| 70 % | Win rate | 10 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 4 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:48 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Ajax Amsterdam a 87 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ajax Amsterdam win 87 %, draw 9 %, Willem II win 4 %.
The most likely score is 3-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 83 %, and both teams scoring at 51 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.10 for Ajax Amsterdam, 9.75 for the draw, 19.00 for Willem II.
Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 08:00 PM (Eredivisie), at Johan Cruijff Arena.
The model leans towards Ajax Amsterdam at home (87 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.78 goals for Ajax Amsterdam and 0.73 for Willem II. Bookmakers say the same thing: 85 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Ajax Amsterdam took 12 points and Willem II 2 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Ajax Amsterdam, 0 draws, 0 wins for Willem II. Over 2.5 goals: 83 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
Nobody has voted yet. Be the first.
