Ajax Amsterdam
5-1
Willem II
Ajax Amsterdam – Willem II
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:48 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 87 %
- Most likely score
- 3-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 3.78 – 0.73
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Ajax Amsterdam 5-1 Willem II. The model predicted a win for Ajax Amsterdam (87 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.78 goals for Ajax Amsterdam and 0.73 for Willem II. Bookmakers say the same thing: 85 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Ajax Amsterdam took 12 points and Willem II 2 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Ajax Amsterdam, 0 draws, 0 wins for Willem II. Over 2.5 goals: 83 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ajax Amsterdam | 1.10 | 85 % | -3.7 % |
| XDraw | 9.75 | 10 % | -11.5 % |
| 2Willem II | 19.00 | 5 % | -27.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Ajax Amsterdam
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Willem II
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Ajax Amsterdam
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Willem II
- Willem II1-2Ajax Amsterdam
- Ajax Amsterdam1-0Willem II
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Ajax Amsterdam – Willem II?
Final score: Ajax Amsterdam 5-1 Willem II. The model predicted a win for Ajax Amsterdam (87 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Ajax Amsterdam – Willem II?
Our model gives 1 · Ajax Amsterdam a 87 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ajax Amsterdam win 87 %, draw 9 %, Willem II win 4 %.