Unión (Santa Fe)
Vélez Sarsfield
Unión (Santa Fe) – Vélez Sarsfield
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 5, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 36 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.25 – 1.29
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Unión (Santa Fe) at home (36 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.25 goals for Unión (Santa Fe) and 1.29 for Vélez Sarsfield. Bookmakers say the same thing: 37 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Unión (Santa Fe) took 5 points and Vélez Sarsfield 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Unión (Santa Fe), 1 draw, 2 wins for Vélez Sarsfield. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Unión (Santa Fe) | 2.55 | 37 % | -8.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | -7.5 % |
| 2Vélez Sarsfield | 2.80 | 34 % | -1.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Unión (Santa Fe)
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Vélez Sarsfield
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Unión (Santa Fe)
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Vélez Sarsfield
- Vélez Sarsfield2-2Unión (Santa Fe)
- Unión (Santa Fe)1-0Vélez Sarsfield
- Unión (Santa Fe)2-1Vélez Sarsfield
- Vélez Sarsfield4-0Unión (Santa Fe)
- Unión (Santa Fe)0-3Vélez Sarsfield
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Unión (Santa Fe) – Vélez Sarsfield?
Our model gives 1 · Unión (Santa Fe) a 36 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Unión (Santa Fe) win 36 %, draw 29 %, Vélez Sarsfield win 35 %.
What is the most likely score for Unión (Santa Fe) – Vélez Sarsfield?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.