San Lorenzo
Platense
San Lorenzo – Platense
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 5, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.17 – 1.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38 %
- Both teams to score
- 45 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards San Lorenzo at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.17 goals for San Lorenzo and 1.03 for Platense. Bookmakers say the same thing: 37 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, San Lorenzo took 8 points and Platense 8 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for San Lorenzo, 0 draws, 2 wins for Platense. Over 2.5 goals: 38 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Lorenzo | 2.55 | 37 % | +1.2 % |
| XDraw | 2.90 | 32 % | -13.4 % |
| 2Platense | 3.00 | 31 % | -8.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
San Lorenzo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Platense
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- San Lorenzo
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Platense
- Platense0-1San Lorenzo
- Platense2-1San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo0-1Platense
- San Lorenzo2-1Platense
- Platense1-2San Lorenzo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win San Lorenzo – Platense?
Our model gives 1 · San Lorenzo a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: San Lorenzo win 40 %, draw 30 %, Platense win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for San Lorenzo – Platense?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.