Alavés
0-1
Valencia
Alavés – Valencia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:48 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.61 – 0.99
The short version
Final score: Alavés 0-1 Valencia. The model predicted a win for Alavés (50 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.61 goals for Alavés and 0.99 for Valencia. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 55 %. Over their last five matches, Alavés took 10 points and Valencia 1 point. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Alavés, 2 draws, 1 win for Valencia. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Alavés | 1.71 | 55 % | -15.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 27 % | -1.2 % |
| 2Valencia | 5.25 | 18 % | +18.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Alavés
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Valencia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Alavés
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Valencia
- Valencia3-2Alavés
- Alavés0-0Valencia
- Alavés1-0Valencia
- Valencia2-2Alavés
- Valencia0-1Alavés
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Alavés – Valencia?
Final score: Alavés 0-1 Valencia. The model predicted a win for Alavés (50 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Alavés – Valencia?
Our model gives 1 · Alavés a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Alavés win 50 %, draw 28 %, Valencia win 23 %.