FC Famalicao
Arouca
FC Famalicao – Arouca
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 5, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.39 – 1.13
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards FC Famalicao at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.39 goals for FC Famalicao and 1.13 for Arouca. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, FC Famalicao took 6 points and Arouca 13 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for FC Famalicao, 2 draws, 1 win for Arouca. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Famalicao | 2.00 | 46 % | -15.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.42 | 27 % | -3.6 % |
| 2Arouca | 3.48 | 27 % | +3.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
FC Famalicao
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Arouca
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- FC Famalicao
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Arouca
- FC Famalicao1-0Arouca
- Arouca1-1FC Famalicao
- Arouca1-2FC Famalicao
- FC Famalicao0-0Arouca
- Arouca3-2FC Famalicao
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Famalicao – Arouca?
Our model gives 1 · FC Famalicao a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Famalicao win 42 %, draw 28 %, Arouca win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for FC Famalicao – Arouca?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.