Sevilla
Alavés
Sevilla – Alavés
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 5, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.55 – 1.15
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Sevilla at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.55 goals for Sevilla and 1.15 for Alavés. Bookmakers say the same thing: 49 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Sevilla took 7 points and Alavés 2 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Sevilla, 2 draws, 2 wins for Alavés. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sevilla | 1.95 | 49 % | -13.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 28 % | +0.9 % |
| 2Alavés | 4.10 | 23 % | +7.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Sevilla
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Alavés
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Sevilla
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Alavés
- Sevilla1-1Alavés
- Alavés1-0Sevilla
- Alavés1-2Sevilla
- Sevilla1-1Alavés
- Alavés2-1Sevilla
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sevilla – Alavés?
Our model gives 1 · Sevilla a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sevilla win 45 %, draw 29 %, Alavés win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Sevilla – Alavés?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.