Derby County
Bolton Wanderers
Derby County – Bolton Wanderers
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 5, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.48 – 1.24
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Derby County at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.48 goals for Derby County and 1.24 for Bolton Wanderers. Bookmakers say the same thing: 39 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Derby County took 1 point and Bolton Wanderers 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Derby County | 2.42 | 39 % | +3.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -4.0 % |
| 2Bolton Wanderers | 2.70 | 35 % | -18.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Derby County
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bolton Wanderers
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Derby County – Bolton Wanderers?
Our model gives 1 · Derby County a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Derby County win 43 %, draw 27 %, Bolton Wanderers win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Derby County – Bolton Wanderers?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.