Toulouse
Strasbourg
Toulouse – Strasbourg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 5, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.48 – 1.38
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Toulouse at home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.48 goals for Toulouse and 1.38 for Strasbourg. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 46 %. Over their last five matches, Toulouse took 8 points and Strasbourg 3 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Toulouse, 1 draw, 2 wins for Strasbourg. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Toulouse | 2.05 | 46 % | -21.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.77 | 25 % | +10.5 % |
| 2Strasbourg | 3.33 | 29 % | +7.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Toulouse
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Strasbourg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Toulouse
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Strasbourg
- Strasbourg1-2Toulouse
- Toulouse1-0Strasbourg
- Strasbourg2-1Toulouse
- Toulouse1-2Strasbourg
- Toulouse0-0Strasbourg
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Toulouse – Strasbourg?
Our model gives 1 · Toulouse a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Toulouse win 39 %, draw 29 %, Strasbourg win 32 %.
What is the most likely score for Toulouse – Strasbourg?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.