Hamburg SV
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburg SV – Borussia Mönchengladbach
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 5, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.56 – 1.47
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Hamburg SV at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.56 goals for Hamburg SV and 1.47 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Bookmakers say the same thing: 39 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Hamburg SV took 6 points and Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Hamburg SV, 2 draws, 0 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hamburg SV | 2.45 | 39 % | -1.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | +5.6 % |
| 2Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2.75 | 35 % | -15.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Hamburg SV
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Hamburg SV
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Hamburg SV0-0Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Borussia Mönchengladbach0-0Hamburg SV
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Hamburg SV – Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model gives 1 · Hamburg SV a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Hamburg SV win 40 %, draw 29 %, Borussia Mönchengladbach win 31 %.
What is the most likely score for Hamburg SV – Borussia Mönchengladbach?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.