Ascoli
Palermo
Ascoli – Palermo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 5, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.28 – 1.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Palermo away from home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.28 goals for Ascoli and 1.37 for Palermo. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 42 %. Over their last five matches, Ascoli took 9 points and Palermo 13 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Ascoli, 1 draw, 2 wins for Palermo. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ascoli | 3.05 | 30 % | +1.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 27 % | +2.5 % |
| 2Palermo | 2.20 | 42 % | -19.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Ascoli
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Palermo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Ascoli
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Palermo
- Palermo2-2Ascoli
- Ascoli0-1Palermo
- Ascoli1-2Palermo
- Palermo2-3Ascoli
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Ascoli – Palermo?
Our model gives 2 · Palermo a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ascoli win 33 %, draw 30 %, Palermo win 37 %.
What is the most likely score for Ascoli – Palermo?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.