Castellón
Eibar
Castellón – Eibar
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 5, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 57 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.73 – 0.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Castellón at home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.73 goals for Castellón and 0.89 for Eibar. Bookmakers say the same thing: 59 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Castellón took 10 points and Eibar 5 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Castellón, 1 draw, 1 win for Eibar. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Castellón | 1.58 | 59 % | -9.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | +9.4 % |
| 2Eibar | 5.00 | 19 % | -20.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Castellón
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Eibar
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Castellón
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Eibar
- Castellón2-1Eibar
- Eibar0-0Castellón
- Castellón2-0Eibar
- Eibar1-0Castellón
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Castellón – Eibar?
Our model gives 1 · Castellón a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Castellón win 57 %, draw 27 %, Eibar win 16 %.
What is the most likely score for Castellón – Eibar?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.