Willem II
PEC Zwolle
Willem II – PEC Zwolle
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 5, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.40 – 1.93
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65 %
- Both teams to score
- 65 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards PEC Zwolle away from home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.40 goals for Willem II and 1.93 for PEC Zwolle. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 41 %. Over their last five matches, Willem II took 3 points and PEC Zwolle 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Willem II, 0 draws, 3 wins for PEC Zwolle. Over 2.5 goals: 65 %. Both teams to score: 65 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Willem II | 2.75 | 34 % | -21.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | -10.6 % |
| 2PEC Zwolle | 2.25 | 41 % | +7.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Willem II
- Last 5 matches
- At home
PEC Zwolle
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Willem II
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- PEC Zwolle
- Willem II1-2PEC Zwolle
- PEC Zwolle0-1Willem II
- PEC Zwolle2-0Willem II
- Willem II1-0PEC Zwolle
- Willem II1-3PEC Zwolle
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Willem II – PEC Zwolle?
Our model gives 2 · PEC Zwolle a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Willem II win 29 %, draw 24 %, PEC Zwolle win 48 %.
What is the most likely score for Willem II – PEC Zwolle?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.