Montpellier
Metz
Montpellier – Metz
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 5, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 52 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.68 – 0.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Montpellier at home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.68 goals for Montpellier and 0.95 for Metz. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 46 %. Over their last five matches, Montpellier took 13 points and Metz 5 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Montpellier, 1 draw, 0 wins for Metz. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Montpellier | 2.00 | 46 % | +4.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -16.5 % |
| 2Metz | 3.65 | 25 % | -17.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Montpellier
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Metz
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Montpellier
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Metz
- Metz0-4Montpellier
- Montpellier3-0Metz
- Metz0-1Montpellier
- Montpellier2-2Metz
- Metz1-3Montpellier
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Montpellier – Metz?
Our model gives 1 · Montpellier a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Montpellier win 52 %, draw 25 %, Metz win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for Montpellier – Metz?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.