Dynamo Dresden
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Dynamo Dresden – SpVgg Greuther Fürth
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 5, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.64 – 1.21
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Dynamo Dresden at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.64 goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.21 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Bookmakers say the same thing: 50 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Dynamo Dresden took 7 points and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Dynamo Dresden, 1 draw, 2 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dynamo Dresden | 1.86 | 50 % | -12.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 24 % | -0.9 % |
| 2SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 3.65 | 25 % | -2.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Dynamo Dresden
- Last 5 matches
- At home
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Dynamo Dresden
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- Dynamo Dresden2-0SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth3-2Dynamo Dresden
- Dynamo Dresden1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth2-0Dynamo Dresden
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Dynamo Dresden – SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model gives 1 · Dynamo Dresden a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Dynamo Dresden win 47 %, draw 26 %, SpVgg Greuther Fürth win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Dynamo Dresden – SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.