Predictions are closed for this match.
Braga
09:45 PM
Sep 14
Estoril
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Braga | 1.39 | 67 % | -28.1 % |
| XDraw | 4.35 | 21 % | +8.2 % |
| 2Estoril | 8.00 | 12 % | +85.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Braga
Estoril
| Braga | Form and statistics | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| 1721 | Elo | 1494 |
| 1.40 | Goals scored / match | 0.50 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 7.0 | Shots / match | 11.3 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 0 % |
| 4 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:47 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Braga a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Braga win 52 %, draw 25 %, Estoril win 23 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 49 %, and both teams scoring at 51 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.39 for Braga, 4.35 for the draw, 8.00 for Estoril.
Kick-off is scheduled for Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:45 PM (Primeira Liga), at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
The model leans towards Braga at home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.63 goals for Braga and 1.00 for Estoril. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 67 %. Over their last five matches, Braga took 10 points and Estoril 2 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Braga, 2 draws, 1 win for Estoril. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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