Moreirense
3-1
Maritimo
Moreirense – Maritimo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:47 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.30 – 1.15
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Moreirense 3-1 Maritimo. The model predicted a win for Moreirense (39 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.30 goals for Moreirense and 1.15 for Maritimo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 34 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Moreirense took 4 points and Maritimo 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Moreirense | 2.73 | 34 % | +5.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 30 % | -9.7 % |
| 2Maritimo | 2.61 | 36 % | -15.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Moreirense
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Maritimo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Moreirense – Maritimo?
Final score: Moreirense 3-1 Maritimo. The model predicted a win for Moreirense (39 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Moreirense – Maritimo?
Our model gives 1 · Moreirense a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Moreirense win 39 %, draw 29 %, Maritimo win 32 %.