Predictions are closed for this match.
Villarreal
09:00 PM
Sep 14
Real Betis
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Villarreal | 1.95 | 49 % | -28.1 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 24 % | +14.2 % |
| 2Real Betis | 3.50 | 27 % | +21.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Villarreal
Real Betis
| Villarreal | Form and statistics | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| 1675 | Elo | 1735 |
| 2.10 | Goals scored / match | 1.80 |
| 1.90 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 13.2 | Shots / match | 14.9 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 70 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:47 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Villarreal a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Villarreal win 37 %, draw 29 %, Real Betis win 35 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 8 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 52 %, and both teams scoring at 56 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.95 for Villarreal, 4.00 for the draw, 3.50 for Real Betis.
Kick-off is scheduled for Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:00 PM (LaLiga), at Estadio de la Cerámica.
The model leans towards Villarreal at home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.37 goals for Villarreal and 1.38 for Real Betis. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 49 %. Over their last five matches, Villarreal took 2 points and Real Betis 12 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Villarreal, 1 draw, 2 wins for Real Betis. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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